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MY TAKE ON PUTIN by JOHN RAMWELL
This Sunday morning, the 25th June, 2023 we woke to the news that the Wagner Battalion under Yevgeny Prigozhin’s is no longer posing an immediate threat to President Putin. This being the case we can continue on as before. At least for the time being. You’ll remember that I wrote about Russia and the Russian people when the current war between them and the Ukrainians started over a year ago. Here’s what I said… ”I have three conclusions regarding the possible consequences of this ‘strategic military exercise’ undertaken by President Putin.
My first conclusion is that he has lost, or is losing, his mind. History shows that many of those who take on really politically powerful positions often succumb to such power in bizarre ways. For example, it’s too easy to be convinced that you are right, despite the facts showing otherwise, whilst still pressing ahead with seemingly counter productive policies.
My second conclusion is that President Putin cannot lose this ‘military exercise’ against Ukraine, without it becoming the finish of him both at home and internationally, and that, inevitably, he will come to understand this. Once he does, my third conclusion kicks in.
My third conclusion is that, just as Adolf Hitler did when he lost WW2, he will commit suicide; but unlike Hitler, who died in a bunker, Putin will die in one of his palaces with his finger on the nuclear button.
None of the foregoing demands much in the way of imagination, insider knowledge or education (none of which I profess to have in any abundance whatsoever) and is a conclusion most of us will have come to but are not prepared to discuss. There’s nothing to be gained by pondering over such possible outcomes and so we plod on regardless; those of us who are able to plod, that is.
And so we’re able to breathe again as Putin has, seemingly, regained control. He’s clearly ‘damaged goods’ though and we watch the near future as it unfolds before us. But what of the Russians themselves, the ones who, like ourselves, are simply plodding on. I had the privilege of spending time in western Russia back in 1992. I got to know several citizens well and am still in contact with a couple I call friends. I can reassure you that they are basically just like us. They are kind and generous whilst being quite capable of demonstrating opposite behaviour when provoked but they have one fundamental problem. They are fearful. They’re all born into fear. Of each other, of officialdom and of the state.
Whereas we here in the west take our rights for granted: the rights to protest, the rights to justice and fairness, etc. I can tell you that the average Russian citizen lives in a culture of fear. This fear is so deeply instilled in their makeup that they’re basically unable to question anything or anybody and have built up a certain resilience to what occurs around them. Hence, they’re easy to control and manipulate. Hence their apparent belief in whatever they are told by the State. The important word here is ‘apparent’ as deep down, in fact, not that deep at all, they know what is what. They may be frightened but they’re not unintelligent.
John Ramwell
Issue 89 Autumn 2023
